Historical Prediction Markets [Working Paper]

Wagering on political outcomes has a long tradition in the United States... between 1868 and 1940 there was a thriving market for betting on presidential elections. The working paper "Historical Prediction Markets: Wagering on Presidential Elections" (2003) by Rhode & Strumpf. Interesting, they note that, "The resulting betting odds proved remarkably prescient and almost always correctly predicted election outcomes well in advance, despite the absence of
scientific polls."